Its always the timing thats hard to predict…and

first_imgIt’s always the timing that’s hard to predict…and what JPMorgan Chase et al will do when it occurs.It was pretty much a nothing day for gold again on Friday.  The low price tick [just under $1,705 spot] came about 11:30 a.m in London…and the subsequent rally was never allowed to get above Thursday’s closing price in New York.  Once the London p.m. gold fix was in at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time, the gold price traded more or less sideways into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.Gold closed at $1,713.70 spot…down $2.40 on the day.  Net volume was exceedingly light, as only around 108,000 contracts were traded.Of course the silver price action was far more ‘volatile’.  The London low came about the same time as gold’s low price tick…and the subsequent rally into the London p.m. gold fix [the high of the day at $32.72 spot] was more defined…as was the engineered price decline that immediately followed.The low of the day [$31.96 spot] came at precisely 11:30 a.m. in New York.  The rally that followed wasn’t allowed to get back above it’s Thursday closing price…and got sold down into the close.Silver finished the day at $32.31 spot…down 29 cents.  Net volume was only 26,500 contracts.Here’s the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart on its own, so you can see the wild price gyrations that occurred during the Comex trading session.The dollar index opened at 81.04…and then rallied about ten basis points by 8:30 a.m. in New York.  Then away went the index to the upside, with the high tick of 81.44 coming just before 11:30 a.m. Eastern…and it was all down hill from there until about 3:45 p.m…and the dollar index traded sideways from there into the close of trading, finishing up 16 basis points on the day at 81.20.A casual glance at the gold chart shows no co-relation whatsoever between the dollar index and the gold price.  The only co-relation I could see was that the index topped out about the same time as silver hit its low price tick…and even then it’s a real stretch to get any co-relation with the rest of the trading day.The gold stocks followed the tiny price gyrations of the gold price pretty closely during the time the equity markets were open…except for the smallish rally going into the close of trading that began before 3:00 p.m. Eastern time.  That was certainly unrelated to the gold price action at the time, which was comatose.  The HUI finally had a positive close…the first time in six days…up 0.87%.Despite silver’s lousy price performance, most of the silver stocks finished well into the plus column…but the seven large cap silver stocks that make up the Silver Sentiment Index only closed up 1.39% on average.  A lot of the juniors did much better than that.(Click on image to enlarge)The CME Daily Delivery Report was quiet once again, which has been typical all month, as November is not a regular delivery month for either gold or silver.  Yesterday they reported that only 1 gold contract was posted for delivery on Tuesday.The GLD and SLV went in separate directions again on Friday.  GLD reported that an authorized participant added 96,887 troy ounces of gold.  It was a different story over at SLV, as another 1,452,117 troy ounces were reported shipped out.  This amount was within 20 troy ounces of the amount that was reported shipped out on Thursday.  A reporting error perhaps?  I don’t know, but if it was, we’ll find out about it on Monday.I just want to note here that it appears that we are at an all-time record high for gold in GLD…which is 43,166,879 troy ounces.  And now that I check back through the records, we’ve been at these new record highs for many months now.  SLV has a long way to go…at least 40 million ounces.The U.S. Mint had another decent sales day on Friday.  They sold 8,500 ounces of gold eagles…1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes…and 70,000 silver eagles.  Month-to-date the mint has sold 56,000 ounces of gold eagles…8,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes…and 2,265,500 silver eagles.  Based on these sales, the silver/gold sales ratio so far this month is a bit over 35 to 1.Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, they reported receiving 845,435 troy ounces of silver…and shipped nothing out.  The link to that activity is here.Well, I wasn’t at all surprised by the Commitment of Traders Report.  The big rally that began early last week got capped in the usual way, as JPMorgan et al went short against all comers…and that is certainly reflected in the increases in the Commercial net short positions in both metals…especially gold.In silver, the price increase over the reporting week wasn’t that great…and the Commercial net short position only increased by 1,283 contracts.  The total Commercial net short position now sits at 254.8 million ounces.The ‘Big 4’ bullion banks are short 251.5 million ounces of silver which, on a net basis, represents 44.0% of the entire Comex futures market in silver.  [A brief glance at the previous paragraph shows that these ‘Big 4’ traders are short almost the entire Commercial net short position all by themselves.]The ‘5 through 8’ big traders are short an additional 51.3 million ounces of silver, or 9.0% of the Comex futures market in silver on a net basis.Straight math shows that the ‘Big 8’ are short 53.0% of the entire Comex silver market on a net basis…and these are minimum numbers!In gold, the Commercial net short position increased by a chunky 17,053 contracts…or 1.7 million ounces…and is now back up to 22.48 million ounces.The ‘Big 4’ traders are short 34.1% of the entire Comex futures market in gold on a net basis…and the ‘5 through 8’ traders are short an additional 13.2 percentage points.  The ‘Big 8’ are short 47.3% of the entire Comex gold market on a net basis…minimum.It’s obvious that the bullion banks have the precious metals market in a vice…and aren’t about to let go anytime soon.  As I’ve always said, on any rally, the bullion banks are going short against all comers.  This past reporting week’s activity is a case in point.It’s these obscene and grotesque short positions that Bart Chilton was discussing with Lauren Lyster on Capital Account on Monday.  It’s obvious even to Bart…and it’s just as obvious that he can’t/won’t do anything about it…at least not at the moment.Here’s Nick’s “Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions” in graphic form.  The “obscene and grotesque” portions are on the far right of this chart.  For a historic perspective of the COTs for both gold and silver…click here for gold and here for silver.(Click on image to enlarge)A couple more ‘critter’ pictures that Nick extracted from a Powerpoint Presentation I received from reader William Gebhardt several weeks back.The first is a Hoopoe feeding its young, or the female sitting on the nest…This photo is a pair of hedgehogs…It’s a Saturday column…and I have a fair number of stories for you today…and quite a few must reads.[The] 1901 [Bull market] was…speculative demonstration based…on the assumption that we were living in a new era; that the old rules and principles and precedent of finance were obsolete; that things could safely be done today which had been dangerous or impossible in the past. The illusion seized on the public mind in 1901 quite as firmly as it did in 1929.  It differed only in the fact that there were no college professors in 1901 who preached the popular illusion as their new political economy. – Alexander Dana Noyes (1930)I have two ‘blasts from the past’ today…one pop, the other classical.  The pop song is from 1969…and that’s forty-three years ago if you can’t/don’t want to do the math.  The group…and the tune…are instantly recognizable.  The link is here.The short, and also instantly recognizable classical piece, is an old Berlioz chestnut from The Damnation of Faust which was first performed in Paris on 6 December 1846…and the link is here.Well, there’s not too much to say about Friday’s performance in the precious metals that I haven’t already said just about every day this past week.  The roll-overs out of the December contract continue unabated…with the ever-present fear of an engineered price decline by JPMorgan Chase and probably Scotia Mocatta…et al.Between now and the end of the month, I just have no idea how this is going to unfold…and as I’ve said too many times already, I could make a strong case for an up-side price break out…or a down-side smash.  I wish I could be more helpful, but it’s impossible to really know…and nobody else knows for sure, either.  These markets are totally within the grip of the big bullion banks…and will remain that way until they either give up control, or get over run.You may have noted further up in this column that there was another story about a price break-out above the $2,000 mark in the not-too-distant future.  That will only happen if “da boyz” allow it…or some ‘black swan’ event with a big “fat tail” makes an appearance…and in today’s economic, monetary and political environment…it’s highly likely at some point.  But it’s always the timing that’s hard to predict…and what JPMorgan Chase et al will do when it occurs.The other thing that’s worth mentioning…and that Ted Butler has been going on about for about two years now…is the frantic physical silver in-out activity in the various warehouses and ETFs all around the world.  This past week’s activity was totally off the charts…and smacks of desperation by the insiders.  If I had to pick a place where the train might go off the rails, this would be it.  We’ll see.That’s it for another week…and I’ll see you here on Tuesday…Wednesday west of the International Date Line.I’m off to bed. Tosca Mining Corporation’s goal is to acquire advanced stage projects that can be placed into production quickly. The company’s primary asset is the Red Hills Molybdenum/Copper project located in Presidio County, Texas. A program to confirm, and expand the considerable size and potential of the project and evaluate various economic scenarios was completed in 2011. Tosca recently received results from the 13 remaining holes from its phase two, 16,000 M (4,873 m) diamond drill program. Per Tosca’s Chairman, Dr. Sadek El-Alfy, “the drill program has successfully verified historic drill results of the shallow Copper-Molybdenum cap and confirmed the presence of a deeper, well mineralized Molybdenum Porphyry deposit.” The results of 21 holes drilled through the copper/moly cap in Tosca’s 2011 drill program give a weighted average grade of 0.39 % Cu over a core length of 113 feet (34.5 m). Since the copper cap is subhorizontal, the average core length can be interpreted as being approximately equivalent to true width. The copper/moly cap is crescent shaped, approximately 4,000 feet (1220 metres) long and 400 feet (122 m) to 1000 feet (305 m) wide.The 2011 program encountered numerous thick  Molybdenum mineralized intervals including Hole TMC-25 wich  intersected 1,189 feet (362.4 m) averaging 0.089 per cent Mo including 830 feet (253 m) of 0.1 per cent Mo from 359 feet (109.8 m) to the bottom of the hole. Hole TMC-29 cut 989 feet (301.4 m) averaging 0.09 per cent Mo including 139 feet (42.4 m) of 0.16 per cent Mo. The molybdenum grades are similar and in some cases higher than those of projects currently considered of potential economic interest.”Aggressive plans are in place for 2012 to conduct metallurgical tests, produce an updated resource estimate and  Pre Economic Assesment. Tosca is operated by an experienced mine development team, operates in Texas, a  mine-friendly jurisdiction and its property iseasily accessible with infrastructure in place to advance operations. Please visit our website to learn more about the company ad request information. Sponsor Advertisementlast_img